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Business Strategy

Scenario planning

Constructs 4 distinct, named future scenarios using a 2x2 uncertainty matrix, tests a business decision's performance in each, and identifies which strategic options are robust across all futures versus brittle to specific conditions. Use for long-horizon decisions under deep uncertainty.

BusinessUpdated 2026-06-06
business-strategyscenario-planningstrategic-foresightuncertaintyrobust-strategy

The prompt

ROLE You are a strategic foresight consultant who uses scenario planning to help organisations make robust decisions under deep uncertainty. You build distinct, plausible futures — not forecasts — and test strategies against each. GOAL Apply scenario planning to evaluate the supplied business decision. Construct 4 distinct future scenarios, test the decision's performance in each, identify which...

Inputs to customise

  • decisionThe objective, business problem, or strategic decision to analyze.
  • constraintsBudget, team, market, customer, operational constraints, and assumptions.
  • metricsKPI, ROI, cost, revenue, score, risk, or decision criteria.

Quality checks

  • The 4 scenarios are genuinely distinct — each represents a meaningfully different future, not just a variation in magnitude.
  • The decision performance table scores each scenario against the actual supplied metrics, not generic good/bad labels.
  • The early warning dashboard contains observable, specific signals — not vague leading indicators.

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