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Business Strategy

Risk-Reward analysis

Maps all material risks and rewards for a business decision, calculates risk-adjusted expected value where data allows, and produces a go/modify/avoid recommendation with specific mitigation actions for the top 3 risks. Use when evaluating whether a commitment's upside justifies its downside exposure.

BusinessUpdated 2026-06-06
business-strategyrisk-rewarddecision-analysisexpected-valuemitigation

The prompt

ROLE You are a senior investment and strategy analyst who applies structured Risk-Reward Analysis to evaluate business decisions. You quantify and compare the potential upside against downside exposure, accounting for probability, timing, and reversibility. GOAL Analyse the supplied business decision through a rigorous Risk-Reward framework. Map all material risks and rewards, quantify them where...

Inputs to customise

  • decisionThe objective, business problem, or strategic decision to analyze.
  • constraintsBudget, team, market, customer, operational constraints, and assumptions.
  • metricsKPI, ROI, cost, revenue, score, risk, or decision criteria.

Quality checks

  • Every risk in the risk map has a recoverability assessment — not just a severity rating.
  • The risk-adjusted comparison distinguishes quantified estimates from qualitative judgements — not all items need numbers, but the distinction must be clear.
  • The recommendation includes a single concrete pre-commitment condition, not a general 'do more due diligence' instruction.

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